Category Archives: Wind

Prediction of wind power production in the short-term

Wind Forecasting (II) — A Business Case, Demonstration, and Investment Opportunity Based on Ultra-Low-Power, Smart Sensor Technology

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Dominic Geraghty, SGiX (smartgridix.com)

 

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John Manobianco, MESO Inc.

 

Recap of SGiX’s First Dialog on Short-Term Wind Forecasting

Wind power generation facilities continue to be deployed across the nation as a result of RPS mandates. In our previous dialog on short-term wind forecasting, we showed that: (1) it is possible to improve the accuracy of wind forecasts, (2) improvements can create substantial value for different Smart Grid (SG) 2.0 stakeholders, (3) increased accuracy requires both higher quality data and improved modeling, and (4) better data is expensive to collect.

cropped-DSC_0288_2.jpgWe also pointed out that there are two potential pricing points for wind forecasting services: today’s (mostly) low-priced commodity market with little differentiation in forecasting accuracy among service providers, and the potential for a value-priced service providing customized higher-accuracy forecasts.

New Business Opportunity for a Smart Sensor Application in Wind Forecasting

This dialog is about an opportunity to develop a value-priced service based on a unique and innovative, approach for collecting higher quality meteorological data, using smart micro-sensors. Dr. John Manobianco, VP, Business Development at MESO Inc., my co-dialog-er, is leading the development of this business. He is an industry veteran with very deep experience in weather forecasting and the use of wireless sensors for meteorological applications.

John has already completed a substantial body of work developing a technology solution based on ultra-small, smart sensors, and identifying and solving some (but not all) of the technology challenges. This work has been supported by NASA from 2002-2005 and NSF in 2012 through a Phase I SBIR I contract - see also a summary here.

He has analyzed the costs of developing and commercializing the technology in some detail. Either of two alternative business models – a systems sale or a services business – seems possible.

To improve and refine the business case, and assess the technology and market risks, John is looking for collaborative help from the SG community.

Two Partnering Offers

In addition to participation in the team-solving process, John is also offering two partnering opportunities: (1) a technology demonstration and (2) a matching-dollar equity investment option (see below).

This Is a Chance to Work on a Real Business Opportunity, and Create a Work-Product On-Line

Smartgridix.com likes this opportunity because it is a real, market-driven need for a business case.

On-line team-solving allows John, the entrepreneur, to leverage the collective intelligence of the SG community in building his business case and identifying creative solutions for some of the technology challenges.

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John Manobianco:

 

Business Concept Application for Wind Forecasting

The overarching vision of our business concept is to revolutionize environmental sensing by developing a system of disposable, centimeter-scale probes that weigh less than a gram and gather data as they drift passively through the air.

Our novel probe design exploits component miniaturization as well as the integration of sensors and other components. But here’s where it gets really interesting: GlobalSense probes can provide measurement accuracy equivalent to or even better than currently accepted instrumentation. Continue reading

Short-Term Wind Forecasting: Can We Do Better?

Increasing Amount of Variable/ “Intermittent” Power Generation

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Dominic Geraghty

 

Let’s first discuss how much renewables’ production capacity we can expect.

Wind and solar power generation facilities are being deployed at a steady rate across the nation. Their cost of fuel is zero, and the source of their power is virtually perpetual. And power production from wind and solar resources creates no pollution.

Most states have instituted Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) – targets for the percentage of power generation (kWhs) that must come from renewable sources by certain future dates.  The RPS target percentages range from 10% to 40% (Hawaii) and the target dates from 2015 through 2025.

cropped-DSC_0288_2.jpgWind and solar differ from traditional power generation plants in that their output is less certain and not controllable --  there is (1) a diurnal variation – wind is stronger at night on average, and solar is available only during daylight hours, and (2) a short-term variation (intermittency) due to rapidly changing wind strength and cloud cover. In addition, wind strength can exhibit steep, unexpected “ramps” -- both up-ramps (increases in strength) and down-ramps -- which can persist for hours. These ramps occur between 50 and 1,000 times per year.

For this dialog, I am going to focus on wind intermittency.

Continue reading

Short-Term Wind Forecasting – Archive

For "BizCase Challenges" document, see here.

References Related to Wind Forecasting (II) Dialog

John Manobianco, NSF Phase I Final Report IIP-1214591, April 2013

John Manobianco, “GlobalSense White Paper”, MESO, Inc., May 2013

John Manobianco, “Global Environmental Micro Sensors (GEMS): A Revolutionary Observing System for the 21st Century”, Phase II Final Report, prepared for NASA Institute for Advanced Concepts, Atlanta, GA, 31st August, 2005

References Related to Wind Forecasting (I) Dialog

Ahlstrom, Mark, et al., "Atmospheric Pressure -- Weather, Wind Forecasting, and Energy Market Operations", IEEE Power and Energy Magazine, November/December 2011

Parks, Keith, of Xcel Energy -- Presentation, "Wind Energy Forecasting: What Is It Worth?", International Conference Energy & Meteorology, November 8 -11, 2011

Parks, Keith, et al.: "Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy", NREL, October 2011

Myers, William, et al., "Evolution of a Short-Term Wind Energy Forecasting System", 92nd Am. Meteorological Soc. Ann Mtg., January 22 - 26, 2012

Bigley, Russell, et al., Xcel Energy, "Difficulties Integrating Wind Generation Into Urban Energy Load", 2009

Lew, Debra, et al., " The Value of Wind Forecasting", NREL Conference Paper, April 2011, pres. 91st Am. Met. Soc. Ann. Mtg., 1/26/2011

California-ISO, Fast Facts: "Renewable Energy Forecasting", 2012

California-ISO, " Integration of Renewable Resources -- Transmission and Operating Issues and Recommendations", November 2007, Forecasting Issues, pp. 49 -55, pp. 116-117